PPE Regression Optimization Center for ESM Evaluation and Development (PROCEED)

Earth System Models (ESMs) need to be able to predict environmental change decades into the future at a global scale, but many of the processes that set global climate operate at a scale of micrometers and seconds, like aerosols, clouds, and precipitation. To tackle this problem we have to develop parameterizations that allow our global scale models to represent these phenomena. Department of Energy is supporting us to work with researchers at Pacific Northwest National Lab, Lawrence Livermore National Lab, and with the UW School of Computing and Caulton Research Group to come up with a development framework for E3SM and challenge model variants with high-quality observations from DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites.

The goal of PROCEED is to become a key partner in Earth System Model (ESM) development in the United States through the creation of a unique observationally-driven model evaluation and development framework. We base PROCEED around two pillars:

Create a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) approach to systematically evaluate and constrain ESMs;

Create a large eddy simulation methodology to bridge process-scale in situ observations to resolution of global models.

About

Team: Learn about PROCEED’s core team members.
Funding: Learn about the Center’s current and past funding.
Computational Resources: Learn about the Center’s computational resources.
Meetings: Learn about upcoming and past meetings.
Results: Check out some cool results from PROCEED research.

News

[August 21, 2025] A new PPE in E3SMv3, called Hephaestus, is currently running. The Hephaestus PPE is focused on aerosol activation and perturbs a different, larger set of parameters compared to the Nephele PPE. The PROCEED team will use the Hephaestus PPE to address more science questions on aerosols and clouds starting later this fall.

[June 25, 2025] Preprint alert! A new study led by Dani Jones and Hunter Brown uses the Nephele PPE output alongside ARM data to constrain the preindustrial to present-day change in cloud drop number concentration. Find it here on ESSOAr. This manuscript is currently under review at GRL.

[June 4, 2025] The preprint for the Nephele E3SMv3 PPE overview paper is out now on ESSOAr! This manuscript is currently under review at JAMES.

[October 3, 2024] Version 0 of the software to make the PPE has been tagged on GitHub and published with Zenodo!

[April 25, 2024] E3SM Webinar Director McCoy presented to 60 participants for the E3SM All-Hands Presentation Series on PROCEED!

[July 31, 2023] Press Release “UW’s McCoy Receives $1M DOE Grant to Study Global Environment”.